The Lancet Regional Health - Americas

The 2025 measles outbreak in South Carolina, the largest in the United States in over two decades, produced 997 confirmed cases, predominantly among school-aged children in an under-vaccinated community in Spartanburg County. To support the South Carolina Department of Public Health (DPH) measles response, we developed a stochastic agent-based model to forecast outbreak trajectory and evaluate intervention strategies in real time, integrating transmission across three spatial scales and grounded in geocoded households, school enrollment records, and census-derived demographic data. The model predicted a median of 1,020 total infections (90% prediction interval: 840-1,273). Counterfactual simulations without active contact tracing and quarantine projected a median of 2,432 infections (90% prediction interval: 1,867-3,185), approximately 138% more than the model-predicted baseline (1,020 cases). Model fidelity required a highly localized between-school contact structure; broader contact assumptions substantially overpredicted both case counts and geographic spread. Simulated regional introductions confirmed that outbreaks arose only near connected clusters of undervaccination, while well-vaccinated areas remained contained. Model versions deployed prospectively at weeks 9, 17, and 34 of the response informed resource allocation decisions and provided operational evidence for the effectiveness of contact tracing and quarantine strategies. Critically, the model reproduced geographic spread, number of affected schools, and breakthrough infection counts not used in fitting, validating its structural fidelity and establishing a replicable framework for jurisdictions maintaining school-enrollment and vaccination records.

Background: Following the global resurgence of cholera in 2022, 51 cholera cases were reported by European countries. We previously characterised 49 Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates from these cases using whole genome sequencing. In 2023 and 2024, 59 additional cholera cases were reported by 11 European countries. Aim: We aimed to confirm that V. cholerae O1 isolates associated with cholera cases reported in Europe in 2023-2024 belonged to the epidemic seventh pandemic El Tor (7PET) lineage rather than to non-epidemic V. cholerae O1 lineages, and to characterise their virulence, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) determinants and phylogenetic relationships. Methods: Fifty V. cholerae O1 isolates were available for whole genome sequencing, of which 49 yielded genomes of sufficient quality for analysis. Genomes were analysed together with more than 1,500 publicly available 7PET genomes to place the European isolates into a global phylogenetic context. Results: All 49 genomes belonged to the 7PET lineage and Wave 3. Four sub-lineages were identified: BD1.2 (2/49), AFR12 (6/49), AFR13 (8/49) and Pre-AFR15 (33/49). The predominance of Pre-AFR15 confirms its continued contribution to the ongoing global cholera resurgence. In contrast to our 2022 survey, eight highly drug-resistant AFR13 isolates were detected, documenting the international spread of this highly drug-resistant clone resistant to multiple first-line antimicrobial agents. Conclusion: Whole genome sequencing should be routinely used by reference laboratories to distinguish epidemic 7PET from non-epidemic V. cholerae O1 lineages and to monitor the emergence and international spread of AMR clones. Continued collaborative genomic surveillance of travel-associated cholera cases can provide early insights into the emergence, international spread and antimicrobial resistance of 7PET sub-lineages.

Background: Multidisciplinary tumor boards (MTBs) are a standard part of cancer care, yet India has no national measure of how many cancer patients are discussed at one. A national survey of hospitals in the National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP), published in 2026, gives the first structured look at board presence and functioning. Objective: To describe how far hospital-level tumor board presence translates into all-case review, documentation and follow-up, and to define the data needed to measure patient-level coverage. Methods: Secondary analysis of published aggregate data: the ICMR-NCDIR survey of 229 hospitals in the NCRP hospital-based cancer registry (HBCR) network (October 2024), the HBCR 2021 report, national incidence estimates (ICMR-NCDIR 2022; GLOBOCAN 2024) and two published single-center MTB audits. We calculated proportions with Wilson 95% confidence intervals, non-response bounds across all 229 hospitals, and logical bounds for joint conditions. No individual-level data were used. Results: A total of 229 hospitals were invited and 172 responded (75.1%). Among the respondents, 137 (79.7%; 59.8% to 84.7% across all hospitals) reported a functional tumor board. Only 65 respondents (37.8%; 28.4% to 53.3%) reported boards that review all cases, 71 (41.3%) had a follow-up system, 50 (29.1%) used any electronic documentation and 7 (4.1%) always took part in cross-hospital reviews. The share of hospitals with both all-case review and a follow-up system could lie anywhere from 0% to 37.8% of respondents. Boards were reported more often in private (86.6%) than in public hospitals (72.5%). Two single-center audits reported about 800 case discussions (573 new patients) and 1,260 case discussions (about 917 patients) a year, but neither reported new registrations at the same hospital, so coverage could not be calculated. Conclusions: Tumor board presence is common in India, but evidence of all-case review, documentation and follow-up is much thinner, and the share of patients reviewed nationally is unknown. We propose six indicators that hospital-based registries could report to measure coverage directly.

Background. Despite relatively high coverage of interventions to prevent vertical transmission, HIV incidence among children born to women living with HIV (WLH) remains above elimination targets, partly because of substantial disengagement from antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the postpartum period. We evaluated the effectiveness of a data-driven continuous quality improvement (CQI) intervention in improving retention in care, virological suppression, and prevention of vertical transmission among pregnant and breastfeeding WLH receiving ART in maternal and child health (MCH) clinics. Methods and findings. This pragmatic cluster-randomized trial was conducted in 105 MCH clinics--three high-volume clinics in each of the 35 health zones (HZs) of Kinshasa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. During the pre-randomization phase (November 2016-December 2017), routine data collection using prevention of mother-to-child transmission registers was strengthened in all participating clinics. In January 2018, HZs were randomized 1:1 to implement CQI or continue the standard of care. In intervention HZs, quality improvement (QI) teams were established at the HZ and clinic levels. Indicators selected collaboratively with QI teams were calculated from routine program data and shared quarterly. Through July 2019, QI teams met quarterly to identify service-delivery challenges and develop strategies to improve outcomes, with an emphasis on retention. Thereafter, responsibility for producing indicators was transferred to QI teams, and meetings continued virtually through WhatsApp. Pregnant and breastfeeding WLH and their infants receiving care at participating clinics between November 2016 and July 2019 were enrolled and followed for at least 24 months. Primary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTFU), viral suppression (<1,000 copies/mL), and a positive HIV test among live-born infants. Overall, 2,376 women were enrolled, including 1,217 (51.2%) before randomization. The analysis of CQI effectiveness included 1,900 participants who remained in care at randomization or enrolled thereafter: 1,103 (58.1%) in control HZs and 797 (41.9%) in intervention HZs. At 6, 12, and 24 months, LTFU was lower in the intervention group than in the control group: 18.6% versus 21.6% (adjusted risk difference [aRD], -5.2 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.6 to -0.8), 29.2% versus 31.0% (aRD, -3.9; 95% CI, -10.2 to 2.4), and 50.1% versus 55.5% (aRD, -7.1; 95% CI, -15.2 to 1.0), respectively. Estimated effects were larger in PEPFAR-supported and urban clinics, although interaction tests were not statistically significant. Viral-load results were available for 38.2%, 50.4%, and 73.5% of eligible participants at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Neither viral-load-result availability nor viral suppression differed between groups. Infant HIV-test results were available for 8.1%, 32.7%, 34.2%, and 28.5% of eligible infants at 6 weeks and 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Conclusions. CQI implementation produced a modest improvement in retention, with the clearest evidence at 6 months and favorable but imprecise estimates through 24 months. Limited availability of maternal viral-load and infant HIV-test results precluded definitive conclusions about virological suppression and vertical transmission. Local quality-improvement interventions may strengthen processes within frontline teams control but cannot alone overcome failures across an interconnected care system. Future studies should align interventions operational reach with all health-system levels responsible for the intended outcomes.

Background: A large increase in mortality from severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Brazil in 2025 was mainly driven by influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among children and the aged, but 2026 data remain largely unpublished. Methods: Secondary data on SARI by age group (<2, 2-4, 5-14, 15-49, 50-64, 65+ years) and virus (Influenza A/B, RSV, SARS-CoV-2, adenovirus, rhinovirus, bocavirus, and metapneumovirus) were retrieved for 35 weeks of 2026. Weekly variations in infection rate (IR) and mortality rate (MR) were described by virus and age group. Case fatality ratio (CFR) and vaccine-preventable deaths from influenza, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 were analysed by age group. Missing virus classification was estimated by multinomial regression. Poisson-based 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for MR. Results: Influenza A infections quintupled during February and March, with a mortality peak in April, mainly due to H2N3. RSV and rhinovirus caused more deaths than influenza viruses, especially among young children (<2) and the aged (65+). The former were most frequently infected by RSV and the latter by rhinovirus. For those 50 years or older, influenza B reached a CFR of about 20%, compared with 5-15% for influenza A, metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and other non-subtyped viruses. The highest vaccine-preventable MRs per 100,000 were 17.23 for the oldest and 8.62 for the youngest. Under ideal conditions, 6418 lives could have been saved, about half among children and adolescents <15 years old. Conclusions: Vaccine-preventable SARI in Brazil exerted a high toll in fall and winter 2026, mainly due to influenza A, RSV, and rhinovirus. Better vaccine coverage may significantly reduce this toll.

Background: Cancer patients face a significantly elevated risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Although vaccination is a cornerstone of prevention, data on vaccination coverage and association with survival among Russian cancer patients remain scarce. We assessed COVID-19 vaccination coverage and its association with overall survival in a population-based cohort of cancer patients in Northwest Russia. Methods: This retrospective registry-based cohort study integrated data from the Population-Based Cancer Registry (PBCR) of the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, regional vaccination records, and an artificial intelligence (AI)-based analysis of chest computed tomography (CT) scans. The cohort consisted of 1,144 cancer patients who underwent CT between August 2020 and April 2021. Vaccination status was ascertained via data linkage. Overall survival (OS) was compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients using Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for demographic, clinical, and AI-derived CT biomarkers. To mitigate immortal time bias, the primary analysis used a landmark approach restricted to patients alive on March1, 2021 (N=1,136). A sensitivity analysis used a November1, 2021 landmark (N=894). Vaccination status was defined as receipt of at least one dose before the landmark date. Results: Only 6.6% (n=76) of patients received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (Sputnik V or Sputnik Light). Vaccinated patients were more likely to have earlier-stage cancer and were less likely to be receiving active treatment. In the primary landmark analysis, vaccination was associated with a significantly higher 3-year OS (80.3% vs. 45.7%, p<0.001). In multivariable analysis, vaccination was independently associated with a 60% lower hazard of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.25-0.64). AI-detected COVID-19 pneumonia on baseline CT was also an independent predictor of poorer survival (adjusted HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09-1.59). In the sensitivity analysis (November1, 2021 landmark), the adjusted HR for vaccination was 0.56 (95% CI 0.34-0.92), showing a consistent but attenuated association. Conclusion: This study reveals critically low COVID-19 vaccination coverage among cancer patients in Northwest Russia. Nevertheless, vaccination was strongly associated with a substantial survival benefit, underscoring its importance as a potentially lifesaving intervention for this vulnerable population.

Background Pediatric neurocritical care (PNCC) has emerged as a distinct field, and many hospitals have moved to establishing dedicated PNCC programs. How practice change is implemented within these programs is not well understood. This study had two objectives. First, we sought to understand the barriers and facilitators of practice change in PNCC from the perspectives of the multiprofessional clinicians who deliver it. Second, we sought to characterize how well the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (i-PARIHS) implementation determinant framework captures them. Methods We conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of clinicians involved in PNCC at three U.S. academic medical centers. The interview guide was developed using i-PARIHS to organize barriers and facilitators of practice change across the innovation, recipients, context, and facilitation constructs. We applied framework analysis, combining deductive i-PARIHS, study-specific, and inductively derived categories. Two coders independently indexed the transcripts and reconciled them to consensus, with first-author adjudication. Preliminary site-level findings were validated with participants. Results We interviewed 33 clinicians: 24 physicians, 7 nurses, and 2 advanced practice providers. Most determinants of practice change mapped to existing i-PARIHS constructs, but three were not adequately captured by the framework as currently specified. The most consequential was an interprofessional authority gradient that determined whose preferences prevailed when intensive care, neurology, and neurosurgery disagreed. The other two were clinician autonomy, which served as the lens through which the acceptability of a change was judged, and the affective state clinicians bring to practice change. Receptivity depended more on recipients' values, prior experience, and capacity to absorb change into a demanding workflow. Facilitation was variable, frequently under-resourced, and dependent on credibility across professional groups. We translated these findings into three propositions linked to implementation strategies and outcomes. Conclusions Participants attributed practice change in PNCC more to the recipients of change, the multiprofessional context, and the availability of facilitation than to the strength of evidence for a given practice. i-PARIHS captured most barriers and facilitators well but may be adapted in this setting. Credible, resourced, authority-sensitive facilitation may improve the prospects for sustained practice change as institutions develop PNCC programs.

Importance: With a recent shift towards summer seasonal predominance of COVID-19 across much of the US, debate continues over optimal COVID-19 vaccination strategies regarding timing (including summer vaccination), eligibility, and dosing frequency. We evaluated the population-level impact of alternative vaccine strategies to inform US and state vaccine policy. Objective: To compare reductions in COVID-19 hospitalizations under different vaccination timing, eligibility, and dosing frequency. Design: Decision analytical model using a stochastic individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to US COVID-19 hospitalization incidence from May 2024-April 2025. Setting: Simulated US national population, with additional scenarios representing state-level seasonal patterns. Participants: Simulated population of 5 million individuals with US age structure, stratified by risk group (immunocompetent, high risk with comorbid conditions, or immunocompromised). Exposures: Vaccination timing, universal or age- and risk-based eligibility, and dosing frequency, including a hybrid strategy of universal annual vaccination with a second dose for adults [&ge;]65 years and immunocompromised adults (US vaccine policy during the study period). Main Outcomes and Measures: COVID-19 hospitalization risk per 100,000 persons by age-risk group, measured among vaccinated individuals and in the total population. Results: If summer COVID-19 vaccination timing is feasible, annual universal vaccination in July minimized risk (441 [95% UI: 423-463] COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 persons among adults [&ge;]65 years) compared to a counterfactual scenario with no additional vaccination given during the study period (578 [553-601]). If timing does not change, hybrid vaccination minimized risk, followed by semiannual risk-based vaccination (460 [440-487] and 477 [454-499] hospitalizations per 100,000 in adults [&ge;]65 years, respectively). The advantage of summer timing diminished if vaccine coverage decreased by 5-10 absolute percentage points (25-50% relative decrease). The magnitude of benefit from summer-timed vaccination and semiannual doses in the highest-risk groups varied regionally. Conclusions and Relevance: Although annual COVID-19 vaccination has historically been timed for winter transmission, summer vaccination may avert more hospitalizations if coverage is maintained, especially in states with predominantly summer transmission including Western and Southern states. The comparative impact of vaccination strategies, especially the benefit of a semiannual dose in the highest-risk groups, may vary regionally. COVID-19 vaccination timing and eligibility may warrant reconsideration.

Background Influenza vaccines have seen many changes over recent years in terms of both policy recommendations and product types. Immune responses and vaccine effectiveness vary by vaccine strain composition and product type. This study aimed to explore this variation on a regional level through examining spatial and temporal autocorrelations of vaccine uptake of different product types within Michigan from 2017 to 2021. Methods Influenza vaccine administration data from the 2017/18 to 2021/22 seasons were obtained from the Michigan Care Improvement Registry. Population size estimates for 2017 and 2019 were obtained from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Age-standardized and age-stratified vaccination rates were computed. Disparate county-level vaccine uptake clusters were constructed using spatial autocorrelation indicators and spatiotemporal clusters were identified using scan statistics. Linear mixed effect models were used to study the impact of social vulnerability and urbanicity level on seasonal influenza vaccination rate. Results Vaccination incidence rates for adjuvanted, recombinant, and nasal sprays vaccines and for any vaccines increased significantly through the study period. County-level spatiotemporal clusters of type-specific uptake rates were identified. Most notably, we identified an emerging cluster with high uptake of adjuvanted vaccine radiating from Ottawa County, located in suburban Grand Rapids, and the disappearance of high uptake cluster for high-dose vaccine uptake in the area. Vaccination rates by any product type were found to vary seasonally and showed weak negative association with more rural regions. The overall vaccination rates appear to be lower among counties with higher social vulnerability in certain urbanicity levels, but social vulnerability and urbanicity were not significantly associated with overall vaccination rate during the study period. Conclusions Vaccine type-specific uptake was spatially and temporally diverse in Michigan between 2017 and 2022. Mid and Northern Michigan had consistently relatively lower vaccination rate compared to other regions in Michigan.

Background and Objectives: Influenza vaccination has a strong safety record and is effective in reducing pediatric influenza-associated morbidity and mortality. However, pediatric vaccination coverage (VC) has declined since the 2019/20 influenza season in the United States. We estimated the impact of increased vaccine protection (through increased VC and/or vaccine effectiveness [VE]) on pediatric influenza-associated burden during the 2022/23-2024/25 seasons. Methods: We used a compartmental model and laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization, VC, and VE data among children 6 months-17 years to estimate influenza burden from 2022/23-2024/25 (the 'baseline' scenario) and the impact of vaccination. We simulated scenarios that (1) increased VC by five percentage points; (2) increased VE by five percentage points; (3) increased VC and VE by five percentage points; and (4) increased VC to levels achieved in 2019/20 (the season with the highest pediatric VC to date). We estimated the difference in hospitalizations and deaths between each scenario and the baseline scenario. Results: Among children 6 months-17 years, an estimated 120,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations and 1,650 deaths occurred across all seasons at baseline. Increasing VC to 2019/20 levels had the greatest estimated impact, reducing hospitalizations by 8,670 (7.2%) and deaths by 130 (7.9%). Increasing both VC and VE by five percentage points reduced hospitalizations by 6.6% and deaths by 6.7%, whereas increasing VC or VE by five percentage points reduced hospitalizations by 3.1% and deaths by 3.2%. Conclusions: Increasing pediatric influenza vaccination coverage back to 2019/20 levels was estimated to significantly reduce pediatric influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.

Bangladeshi immigrants are a rapidly growing U.S. immigrant population, yet little is known about how pre-migration healthcare experiences shape healthcare use after migration. This qualitative study explored how healthcare norms from Bangladesh influence the health-seeking behaviors of Bangladeshi immigrants in the U.S., the barriers and facilitators they encounter, and their perceptions of care quality. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 Bangladeshi-born adults living in the U.S. from September 2020 to January 2021 and analyzed using the constant comparative method. Participants described healthcare expectations shaped by the healthcare system of Bangladesh, which is mostly out-of-pocket and resource-limited, including symptom-driven rather than preventive care, self-treatment, and family-based caregiving. In the U.S., they faced barriers such as insurance confusion, long waits, difficulty establishing care, coverage disruptions, financial concerns, and language challenges. While participants valued culturally and linguistically concordant care, preferences for Bangla-speaking or co-ethnic providers varied, especially when perceived quality was low. Community networks, online information, self-education, and self-advocacy helped facilitate care. Provider communication strongly shaped perceptions of U.S. healthcare: feeling heard, respected, and well-informed promoted trust, while dismissal or delayed diagnosis led to skepticism and avoidance. These findings suggest that healthcare engagement of Bangldeshi immigrants is shaped by both structural barriers and pre-migration norms. Improving access will require attention to subgroup-specific histories, insurance navigation, language access, and the relational quality of care.

Background: Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) is increasingly used for treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) to improve treatment compliance, oncological outcomes and opportunities for organ preservation. However, evidence describing its implementation and outcomes in low- and middle-income countries remains limited. This study evaluated the feasibility, treatment delivery, oncological outcomes and organ preservation outcomes of TNT in a real-world South African setting. Methods: This was a retrospective review of a prospective cohort of adults with histologically confirmed, non-metastatic LARC treated with TNT at the Wits Donald Gordon Medical Centre, Johannesburg, between March 2022 and January 2026. Treatment was individualised following multidisciplinary review and included induction and/or consolidation systemic chemotherapy with either long- or short-course radiotherapy. Following TNT, treatment response was assessed clinically, endoscopically and radiologically. Patients with a clinical complete response (cCR) were offered watch-and-wait (WW) surveillance, while those with an incomplete response were recommended for total mesorectal excision (TME). The primary outcome was organ preservation, assessed as TME-free survival. Secondary outcomes included tumour regrowth, disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) following TME. Results: Forty-six patients were included; median age was 63 years, 67.4% were male, 82.6% had T3-T4 tumours and 80.4% had node-positive disease. TNT was completed as planned in 95.7% of patients. Grade [&ge;]3 toxicity occurred in 19.5% during chemotherapy and 8.9% during radiotherapy. Twenty-one patients (45.7%) achieved a cCR and entered WW surveillance. TME-free survival was 46% (95% CI 31-60) at 1-year and 18% (95% CI 8-32) at 3-years. Three-year OS and DFS were 87% (95% CI 64-96) and 76% (95% CI 53-89), respectively. Among patients managed with WW, 3-year regrowth-free survival was 53% (95% CI 26-75). Three-year LRFS following TME was 94% (95% CI 68-99), and all patients undergoing TME or completed salvage surgery achieved an R0 resection. Conclusion: TNT was feasible and well tolerated in this real-world South African cohort, with high treatment completion and favourable medium-term oncological outcomes. Although almost half of patients initially achieved a cCR, declining TME-free and regrowth-free survival demonstrated that durable organ preservation was less frequent, highlighting the importance of structured surveillance and timely access to salvage surgery. These findings support the feasibility of delivering contemporary multimodal rectal cancer care in an appropriately resourced African setting.

Background State-level estimates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence are needed to guide resource allocation and to provide a baseline against which to measure progress toward elimination goals. Population prevalence is not directly observable, requiring estimation from indirect data sources. Methods We adapted a Bayesian spatial integrated abundance model to estimate state-level HCV prevalence during 2017-2020 across 48 states and the District of Columbia. The model integrated six HCV-related outcomes: acute and chronic surveillance cases, HCV-related deaths, observations of HCV in [MarketScan] administrative claims data, diagnoses of HCV in Medicaid recipients, and treatment with direct-acting antivirals in Medicaid recipients. Estimates were anchored to a national prevalence estimate, and the model accounted for data source-specific selection, heterogeneity in HCV risk factors across states, and geospatial correlation. Results Estimated average prevalence was 1.32% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.94%-1.80%), corresponding to 3.33 million (95% CrI: 2.37-4.65 million) adults with HCV infection across 48 states and DC. State estimates ranged from 0.74% in North Dakota to 2.22% in Oklahoma (median state-specific prevalence, 1.27%), with higher prevalence concentrated in South Central states, Appalachia, and the West, and the lower prevalence in the upper Midwest, Southeast, and New England. Ten states accounted for 56% of estimated infections. Estimates were stable in sensitivity analyses (most differences <1 percentage point). Conclusions These estimates quantify state-level HCV burden prior to the 2021 federal expansion of HCV surveillance funding, providing a baseline for monitoring elimination progress. Geographic variation indicates that resource needs will differ by jurisdiction.

Globally, measles is re-emerging in countries that have previously achieved elimination, including the United States. As immunization rates decline, characterizing the dynamics and evolving spatial pattern of measles re-emergence is critical to inform the public health response. We analyze annual county-level measles cases and vaccine coverage data in the United States (US) from 2011-2025 and find a shift in measles epidemiology in recent years indicative of re-emergence. While outbreak risk is spatially concentrated, we find that outbreaks are increasingly spreading throughout the broader population and across counties, but targeted interventions are predicted to prevent re-emergence nationwide. During the first decade of this period (2011-2020), outbreaks were only weakly associated with county-level vaccine coverage and predominantly isolated to single counties; however, recently (2021-2025), vaccine coverage has become strongly associated with outbreak size and spread across neighboring counties has increased. These findings suggest that measles transmission is increasingly sustained across the broader population rather than only in socially clustered communities. We developed a spatial statistical model to predict outbreak risk and size in all US counties with validation over 2021-2025; the model predicted counties with [&ge;]10 cases with a sensitivity of 95% (range across 2021-2025: 75-100%) and specificity of 83% (64-98%). Mechanistic models based on county vaccine coverage alone had worse performance, particularly in predicting larger outbreaks. Using the spatial statistical model, we find that prioritizing interventions in the areas of greatest model-predicted risk (e.g., top decile of US counties) was more impactful than state-level interventions (e.g., top five states) or targeting based on low vaccine coverage alone. Achieving even modest (5 percentage point) increases in vaccine coverage in counties in the top decile of model-predicted risk reduced long-term measles risk nationwide by over 90%. Together, these findings demonstrate that predictive risk modeling to inform spatially targeted interventions can likely mitigate the re-emergence of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Background: Underweight, overweight, and linear growth during and after cancer treatment can impact treatment efficacy and survival in childhood cancer patients, and long-term health in childhood cancer survivors (CCS). However, scientific evidence on the weight status and growth of CCS is limited. Previous studies have been small, focused on specific cancer types, or lacked objectively measured longitudinal data. The availability of standardized, semantically interoperable routine data from oncology clinics offers an unprecedented opportunity to investigate nutritional status across all childhood cancer types, treatment regimens, and critical time windows. Objectives: We will investigate underweight, overweight, and growth trajectories from birth to adulthood in childhood cancer patients and survivors. We will identify predictors associated with distinct growth and weight trajectories and assess the consistency of findings across European countries. Methods: The Growth study will collect routinely recorded sociodemographic, clinical, and anthropometric data from paediatric and adolescent cancer patients (aged <20 years) from Switzerland, Portugal and Slovenia, We will include patients diagnosed between 2004-2026, by linking data from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry (ChCR), the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS), the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO), and oncology clinics in Switzerland. Deterministic linkage of data sources (ChCR, SCCSS, oncology clinics, and FSO) will be performed using social security numbers. We will calculate age- and sex-specific z-scores for weight, height, and BMI based on country-specific and World Health Organization growth references. Latent trajectory modelling will be applied to identify distinct growth and weight trajectories and to detect subgroups at increased risk of growth impairment. We will use logistic regression models to identify predictors of impaired growth. Results: The project was funded in 2025; first study results are expected to be published by autumn 2027. We will obtain routinely collected data from approximately 12,250 childhood cancer patients and survivors - 7,800 from Switzerland, 3,350 from Portugal, and 1,100 from Slovenia. Conclusions: The Growth study will provide insights into the nutritional status of childhood cancer patients and survivors and improve understanding of growth patterns in this population. Identifying high risk groups and tumour or treatment related factors will inform targeted surveillance strategies and early nutritional interventions.

Objective: To compare healthcare access among U.S. children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) only, autism only, and co-occurring ADHD-autism, and to identify social inequities associated with unmet care using recent nationally representative data. Methods: We analyzed combined 2023-2024 National Survey of Childrens Health data for 13,576 children aged 3-17 years with current ADHD and/or autism. Six healthcare-access outcomes were examined: forgone healthcare, unmet mental health care, no medical home, coverage gap or inadequate insurance, unmet specialist care, and unmet care coordination. Survey-weighted modified Poisson regression estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95 percent confidence intervals (CIs). Six multiply imputed poverty measures were combined using Rubins rules. Sensitivity models additionally adjusted for functional difficulty. Results: Compared with ADHD only, co-occurring ADHD-autism was associated with higher prevalence of forgone healthcare (aPR, 1.73; 95 percent CI, 1.38-2.16), no medical home (1.11; 1.02-1.20), inadequate or discontinuous insurance (1.14; 1.03-1.28), unmet specialist care (1.49; 1.14-1.94), and unmet care coordination (1.15; 1.04-1.28). Autism only was associated with unmet mental health care (1.49; 1.13-1.97) and care coordination (1.13; 1.02-1.25). Food insufficiency, housing instability, and non-supportive neighborhood conditions were consistently associated with poorer access. After adjustment for functional difficulty, associations remained for co-occurring ADHD-autism with forgone and specialist care and for autism only with unmet mental health care. Conclusions: Healthcare access inequities differed by neurodevelopmental diagnostic group and social context. Pediatric systems should strengthen care coordination, specialty and mental health access, insurance continuity, family navigation, and responses to food and housing hardship. Keywords: attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; autism spectrum disorder; healthcare access; health disparities; social determinants of health

Health systems increasingly record ICD-10 Z59 social-needs codes for housing, food, transportation, and related hardship to trigger referrals, report quality, and adjust risk. However code documentation occurs at varying rates and no study has separated what the code says about a patient's hardship from what it says about being documented at all. Using a linked electronic health record and claims corpus covering 4.95 million patients in 21 identifiable health systems, we matched 26,153 adults with a first outpatient Z59 code to similar uncoded patients and, as a negative control, repeated the entire design around an administrative code. Coding ranged from 1 percent to 24 percent of patients across systems and remained highly variable after adjustment for patient mix. A hardship code was associated with 67% (95% CI=1.61, 1.74) more emergency department (ED) visits and 43% ( 95% CI=1.38, 1.49) more hospital admissions in the next year (62 versus 49 of every 100 patients with any acute event). The administrative-code reproduced 46 percent of the Z59 association for ED visits and 70 percent for admissions. In the five systems with the most complete stay dates, no hardship-specific admission excess was detectable. Homelessness codes forecast two and a half times the ED visit rate. At national planning prices, excess emergency and preventable hospital care totaled roughly $2,000 to $2,500 per coded patient-year ($2,516 base scenario; about $1,100 under an exploratory assumed-discount scenario (not an estimate of hardship-attributable spending)), with the largest emergency burden among Medicaid patients. The Z code added no increment to clinical and utilization-based risk prediction models in any system.

Background: Health Information Exchanges (HIEs) offer a potential resource for timely, population-level infectious disease surveillance by integrating electronic health record data across healthcare systems. Methods: We developed an end-to-end informatics pipeline for near-real-time community-level health surveillance based in a regional HIE serving Southeast Texas. We identified deidentified individual-level COVID-19, influenza, and RSV cases using diagnosis codes and laboratory results and assessed demographic and temporal trends from January 2022 through August 2026. Results: We identified 492,242 COVID-19 cases, 343,977 influenza cases, and 33,159 RSV cases during the study period. Surveillance data captured expected seasonal patterns, including recurring winter COVID-19 and influenza peaks and shifting RSV epidemiology, while enabling monitoring of laboratory test positivity metrics and hospitalization trends across age groups. Conclusions: HIE-based surveillance provides scalable, near-real-time monitoring of disease targets across large populations. HIE infrastructure can enhance public health situational awareness and complement traditional surveillance systems by harmonizing vital health data across systems and providers and delivering timely, standardized, and representative population health indicators.

Background: A responsive and resilient health system that is informed by community needs and guided by evidence-based interventions is fundamental to delivering quality essential health services and achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ethiopia committed to improve access to and quality of essential health services through the Health Extension Program Optimization (HEPO) roadmap, which restructured primary healthcare facilities into three categories i.e., Basic Health Posts (BHPs), Comprehensive Health Posts (CHPs), and Health Extension Program units imbedded within Health Centers (HCs). However, evidence on the reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) service availability and readiness of these restructured primary health-care facilities remains limited. Methods: This multi-region cross-sectional facility based study was conducted between December 2024 and February 2025. A structured questionnaire adapted from the World Health Organization Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) was used to measure service availability, general facility readiness, and RMNCH service-specific readiness using predefined domains and tracer items. Differences across facility types were assessed using Kruskal-Wallis or categorical association tests, with Benjamini-Hochberg adjustment for multiple comparisons. Multivariable linear regression estimated the adjusted differences in overall RMNCH readiness, controlling for region, urban-rural residence, and log-transformed catchment population, with robust standard errors clustered at woreda level. Results: A total of 305 primary health care facilities were assessed, including 107 BHPs (35.1%), 142 CHPs (46.6%), and 56 HCs (18.4%). Nearly all BHPs were located in rural settings (99.1%), compared with 86.6% of CHPs and 71.4% of HCs. The median general health facility readiness were increased significantly across facility levels, from 33.1% (IQR: 24.4-40.7) in BHPs to 62.9% (IQR: 54.1-71.4) in CHPs and 89.6% (IQR: 81.3-93.6) in HCs (p<0.001). And the median overall RMNCH service readiness was 67.9%, 77.8%, and 91.1% for BHPs, CHPs, and HCs, respectively (p<0.001). skilled Birth Attendance readiness was demonstrated the largest gap between facility types. Compared with CHPs, BHPs scored 9.9 percentage points lower in adjusted RMNCH service readiness (95% CI: -14.7 to -5.1; p<0.001), while HCs scored 8.7 points higher (95% CI: 1.7-15.8; p=0.015). Conclusions: The restructured primary healthcare facilities expanded access to essential services, particularly through CHPs, which occupy an intermediate position between BHPs and HCs through substantial expansion of RMNCH service packages for underserved communities. Nevertheless, significant gaps remain in staffing, infrastructure, commodities, diagnostics, and childbirth readiness. Future HEPO scale-up should prioritize strengthening childbirth-readiness packages and ensuring reliable supply chains for essential medicines and diagnostics.

Background Cancer incidence and mortality are rising in Africa, yet the distribution and determinants of cancer in high HIV-prevalence regions remain limited. We characterized cancer epidemiology, treatment, and survival among adults in western Kenya, where HIV prevalence ranges between 10.3% and 11.7%. Methods This retrospective cohort study included adults (18 years and older) with cancer treated at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Teaching and Referral Hospital (JOOTRH) in Kisumu, Kenya, between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2024, followed through June 30, 2025. Data were abstracted from paper records into REDCap. Negative binomial models estimated annual trends, Kaplan-Meier curves evaluated survival, and Cox proportional hazards models evaluated mortality. Findings Among 3978 patients (64% female; median age 53.9 years, IQR 42.0-65.1), annual case counts rose from 29 to 708, averaging a 38% annual increase (95% CI 29-48). Cervical (24%), esophageal (13.6%), breast (12%), prostate (8%), and colorectal (4%) cancers accounted for 62% of cases. 1305 (33%) of cancer patients were living with HIV and 802 (20%) had unknown HIV status. Among patients whose cancer was assigned a stage, 72% presented at stage III-IV. 1973 (50%) received cancer-directed treatment, and 51% had an unscheduled clinic visit lapse of at least 180 days. Cancer-directed treatment was the strongest protective factor for mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.27, 95% CI 0.22-0.32); HIV-positive status (aHR 1.43, 1.19-1.71), HIV-unknown status (aHR 1.48, 1.20-1.81), and poor or missing performance status were independently associated with higher mortality, robust across sensitivity analyses. Interpretation Cancer mortality was strongly associated with treatment and HIV status at diagnosis. Closing the treatment-access gap and adopting routine opt-out HIV testing at the first oncology visit are essential for integrated cancer care in high-HIV-prevalence settings. Funding Research reported in this publication was supported by the American Cancer Society; the Washington University in St. Louis Institute of Clinical and Translational Sciences through a grant from the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATs) of the National Institutes of Health; Just-in-Time funding, and the National Cancer Institute Center Support Grant P30CA091842.